[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 4N6E 4N14W 1N34W 3N46W 1N50W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
WAVE AXIS FROM 37W TO 49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A 1011 MB LOW
JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE COOL AIR IS
BANKING UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRES AND A
STATIONARY FRONT IS INDICATED THERE.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVY THUNDERSHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WHICH IS IMPACTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE US GULF COASTAL
REGION.  ADDITIONALLY...A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IS
AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE FRONTAL
FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO.  THE WEAKENING
FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH SOUTH FLORIDA BY TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILE
NORTHERLIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST.  WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE GULF MAY BE
OVER 20 KT...WHILE MUCH OF THE GULF SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS ORIENTED WNW-ESE AT 15N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DOWN TO 5N AT
60W.  SUBSIDENCE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS PREVENTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE REGION.  STRONG TRADEWINDS UP
TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N35W TO 20N50W TO 18N61W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT IS INDICATED AS A CONTINUATION OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.  A 1021 MB
BERMUDA HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N63W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF
45W.  ONLY SMALL SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONT WEST OF 45W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS
DOMINATED BY SUBSIDENT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD START WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE FRONT JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE US
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO
NEAR CUBA BY TOMORROW NIGHT.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE BETWEEN 70 AND 50W NORTH OF
ABOUT 30N.

$$
LANDSEA




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