[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
5N4W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W 3N51W INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
TRANSVERSE BANDING IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
WITHIN 320 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N24W 8N16W 14N9W IN THE
TROPICAL JET STREAM. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2S TO 5N
BETWEEN 33W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WEST OF 50W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 70W FROM SOUTH AMERICA
NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST
OF 50W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NORTHWEST
OF 17N100W 25N90W 31N80W PASSING OVER THE U.S.A. GULF COAST
STATES AND PARTS OF THE GULF WATERS. THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS
ARE COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. A COLD
FRONT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N84W TO 28N91W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N91W TO 25N94W...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
21N97W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 25N100W...TO A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N104W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 31N108W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 70W FROM SOUTH AMERICA
NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FROM 12N TO 17N
BETWEEN 63W AND 79W...SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR EVERYWHERE ELSE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N60W 14N70W 15N80W
17N84W 18N88W. A COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSES
THROUGH 31N37W TO 19N60W 19N65W...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA...TO 21N73W. A BAND OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS NORTH OF 17N60W 17N66W
18N70W 20N73W TO 20N...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 70W FROM SOUTH AMERICA
NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 50W.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND FROM 17N TO 33N BETWEEN 38W AND
53W...AND FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 56W AND 71W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 31N37W TO 26N40W 21N50W 19N60W 19N65W...SKIRTING
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...TO 21N73W. A WELL-DEFINED
BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MARKS THIS COLD FRONT. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 31N38W
TO 27N38W TO 20N40W TO 16N43W SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 23N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO
28N BETWEEN 18W AND 30W.

$$
MT




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