[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N25W 2N35W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 50-70 NM NORTH OF THE
ITCZ FROM 16W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 38W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1014 MB SFC LOW
OVER SOUTH ALABAMA ACROSS SE LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR
25N94W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CROSSES S OF TAMPICO AND
CONTINUES N ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES SW TO OVER NW MEXICO SUPPORTS THE LOW AND THE FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE SE U.S..
A WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS THAT IS MAINLY INLAND
OVER THE SE U.S. AND NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS CUBA AND OVER THE W ATLC.
DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF SE OF A LINE
FROM TAMPICO TO TAMPA BAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE
REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 21N77W INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS S OF HIGH PRES CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE TRADES ARE ADVECTING TYPICAL PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN JUST NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N43W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG 25N50W TO
22N60W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 21N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
27N. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT SOUTH
OF 27N. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 20N40W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER E ATLC NEAR 25N25W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 12N28W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
GR



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