[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 3N40W 2N51W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO N OF TAMPICO AT 23N98W.  A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA ALONG
30N87W 28N83W.  COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE TEXAS COAST.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM
29N-30N BETWEEN 86W-88W.  TEMPERATURES IN THE COLD AIR MASS OVER
COASTAL TEXAS ARE IN THE 50'S.  IN CONTRAST THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE WARM AIR MASS NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA ARE IN THE UPPER 70'S
WITH FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SW TO N FLORIDA AND TO NE MEXICO WITH CONVECTION.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AIR
MASS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY N OF 13N AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.  30KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ALOFT...EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  A RIDGE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.   EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN ATLANTIC FROM 32N50W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 27N60W 26N70W 28N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF FRONT.  GALE FORCE
SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 62W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM 29N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
43W-47W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC NEAR
36N21W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 60W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E NEAR 22N30W.  WLY
FLOW COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 60W TO AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA





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