[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N30W EQ50W. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS MORE PROMINENT TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE NOW SEEN WITHIN 150NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 25W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MID TO UPPER
MOISTURE EWD FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF
WATERS N OF 26N...AROUND THE DOMINATING UPPER RIDGE. DRY AIR
WITH SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT THE
SFC...STATIONARY FRONT STILL AROUND...EXTENDING W FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W THEN S THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN
EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY W OF 88W. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
RELAXED STEADILY OVER THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS...EXCEPT OFF THE
TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST WHERE LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH INTERACTS
WITH CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT N TO
NE WINDS AND MODERATE WIND WAVES. HIGHEST WINDS/WAVES TO PERSIST
NRN GULF WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF 88W THROUGH SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA MOVES E WHILE INTERACTING WITH LINGERING
FRONTAL TROUGH. SEE MIAOFFNT4 FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGING AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. DEEP CONVECTION THEREBY REMAINS ABSENT.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW AT THE SFC. THE
SFC WIND MAXIMA REMAINS NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 30 KT.
TRADES CONTINUE TO ADVECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD ACROSS THE BASIN. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA...AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BANKS UP AGAINST THE
TERRAIN. LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SW N ATLC. RIDGE IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE THROUGH THE SE U.S. AND INTO THE W ATLC N OF
25N. 1019 MB SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N77W AND CONTINUES SW
TO THE SE FLORIDA COAST. FRONT WILL RACE QUICKLY E THROUGH THE
WRN ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT/WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING
E THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 53W. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N42W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR
27N60W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THIS IS N OF 27N BETWEEN
45W-46W. QUASI-STATIONARY 1014 MB SFC LOW NEAR 23N50W HAS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ITS E FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN
41W-49W. GFS INDICATES THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 1008 MB BY
TONIGHT WHILE MOVING NE...THEN GET ABSORBED INTO THE
POWERFUL...COMPLEX LOW SE OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY
SUNDAY. PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 27N24W.
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS N OF 22N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 26W. SFC PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC DOMINATED BY
MODERATE E TO NE WINDS SW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM PORTUGAL.
WSW JET OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO ADVECT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS ENE FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO THE AFRICAN
COAST.

$$
WILLIS




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