[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N25W 2N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE NW GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. SHALLOW LAYER OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
CREATING A MESS OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS...SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. MARINE
ISSUES ALSO EXIST...WITH A GALE WARNING BEHIND THE FRONT
STARTING FOR THE SW GULF S OF 25N THIS EVENING AND LASTING
THROUGH WED. SEE MIAHSFAT2 FOR DETAILS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
STRATIFORM RAIN ALSO ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WRN
GULF. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATE RETURN FLOW IS BEING
OBSERVED. ALOFT...A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE IS
SEEN SPREADING THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THE NW
GULF...AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT
DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS SE OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE DRY AIR IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIB AND AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE ERN PORTION. AT THE SFC...A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN
COAST. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD. MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW
MOISTURE/SHOWERS NOTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...LIKELY
ATTRIBUTED TO SPEED CONVERGENCE. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIB THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1032 MB SFC HIGH JUST E OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED 5 TO 10 FT SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD ELY SWELL ALSO
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS SUBSIDES SLOWLY
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN
THE ELY FLOW THROUGH THE WRN BAHAMAS...WHICH IS SPREADING LOW TO
MID CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS INTO SE FLORIDA. A MORE
PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 27N45W 23N50W 17N52W. THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ATLC...WITH THE UPPER AXIS FROM 30N47W TO HISPANIOLA.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM 18N-27N
BETWEEN 42W-54W. E ATLC DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVECT HIGH CLOUDS EWD BETWEEN NE SOUTH AMERICA AND
AFRICA. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO NE SFC WINDS ALSO OVER THE E ATLC
SE OF 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N39W. THE SFC TROUGH ALONG 32N24W
26N22W...ABOUT 350 NM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING W WITH THE
TRADES IN THE ATLC...THOUGH THESE DIMINISH GREATLY E OF
35W...WHERE A DENSE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS EVIDENT.

$$
WILLIS




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net