[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN TO 21W THEN ALONG 1N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 28W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND THE E US ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION CROSSES MEXICO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED IN THE GULF ON
MON. CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS THE SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND RETURN FLOW BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THEW BAY OF CAMPECHE TO ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF ATTRIBUTED TO THE SAME
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC DIPS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
SW TO 15N76W. THE STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N
FROM 66W-72W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 72W WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N44W ALONG
24N58W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM
20N-26N AND S OF 20N FROM 64W-72W. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC BY A 1037 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION
EXTENDING OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. NARROW UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 19N58W NE TO BEYOND 32N36W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED FROM AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW
NEAR 31N24W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 26N FROM 24N THROUGH A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 29N26W TO
BEYOND 32N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 20W-24W.

$$
WALLACE




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