[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N7W 2N23W 1N44W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 47W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 25W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US INTO THE GULF
RESULTING IN MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA
NEAR 26N81W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W TO NW
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W TO
23N88W THEN S OF A LINE FROM 24N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W
COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANK...SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH
MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 30'S TO 40'S.
SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER BUT THIS WILL BE CHANGING OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
IS BUILDING ACROSS THE SE US WITH A 1026 MB HIGH ALONG THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT BECOMING WEAKER
AND MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES E ACROSS
THE SE US.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE TO OVER W
CUBA COVERING THE REGION W OF 75W. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS JUST N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR DOMINATE THE REGION. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLC CONTINUES TO SHIFT E. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF
MOVES FURTHER INTO THE W ATLC AND W CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE INTO THE FAR W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W INTO THE
GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO BEYOND 32N74W. NARROW
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM
ACROSS W CUBA TO BEYOND 32N69W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ARE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W CLOUD FREE. AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 22N59W WSW INTO THE SW ATLC...THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE W
TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 20N73W. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE
FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N50W TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 19N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 20N-26N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 48W. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 24N E OF 40W WITH NO SURFACE
REFLECTION. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
TROPICS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 3N45W AND COVERS THE AREA
S OF 25N E OF 50W TO OVER AFRICA. JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO
110 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC E OF THE FRONT
IN THE FAR W ATLC WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 33N47W AND A 1027 MB HIGH IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
34N17W.

$$
WALLACE




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