[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 2N15W
4N30W 3N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 2W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 18W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW OVER ERN LOUISIANA
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF ALONG 29N91W 25N93W TO NEAR TUXPAN
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NRN
GULF WATERS JUST S OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTENDS
INLAND INTO THE ADJACENT GULF COAST STATES. DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THIS REGION AS
WELL. LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS DIMINISHING...WITH THE
LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC HIGH BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.
INSTEAD...SFC FLOW IS BECOMING DIFFLUENT WITH LIGHT SLY RETURN
FLOW NOW ESTABLISHED OFF THE TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF THE BROAD LOW
AND TROUGH OVER NW TEXAS. UPPER SUPPORT IS HEALTHIER WITH
DISTINCT DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
TEXAS COAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE ERN GULF.
SFC WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE SE TO S 15-20 KT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE BACKING OFF A NOTCH INTO FRI NIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE TEXAS
COAST LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRADE FLOW NEAR THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. 0000 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUED TO VERIFY THIS
WITH 30-35 KT E WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BRISK 20-30 KT TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
GENERATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. BESIDES FOR THE STRONG
TRADES...THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS ABUNDANT VERY DRY
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR DOMINATES THE REGION. THIS DRY AIR IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIB AND TROUGHING
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CARIB. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE BEING CARRIED BY THE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...AFFECTING THE LESSER/GREATER ANTILLES
FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM THE WRN
CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA N OF THE
BAHAMAS W OF 65W. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS E OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING
SSW FROM 32N55W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE TO ITS E IS
SUPPORTING THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-30N
BETWEEN 50W-56W. THIS IS ALSO GETTING LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
OLD SFC COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N44W AND EXTENDS
WSW TO 28N68W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH 31N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH LOCATED SE OF THE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM
32N40W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150NM OF THIS TROUGH WITH ABUNDAND MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY.
REMAINDER OF SW AND CENTRAL NORTH ATLC SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY
A RIDGE FROM A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 35N58W. IN THE ERN ATLC...AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 22N37W. A
WIDE AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW...N OF 20N BETWEEN THE
AFRICAN COAST AND 35W. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS THEN SPREADING
E AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC. 1035 MB SFC HIGH
N OF THE MADIERA ISLANDS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE E ATLC
AS WELL.

$$
MW/GR


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