[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 1S11W
2N20W 3N35W 2N43W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TODAY ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE
SRN STATES. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY N OF 26N W OF 91W...BASED ON
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND IR IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
CONSISTS OF STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO THE E OF A NARROW
RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL TEXAS. A
RELATED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NE AND AS
OF 15Z WAS LOCATED OVER NRN LA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES EWD FROM
THE LOW ALONG OR JUST S OF THE N GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM THE LOW SWD TO MEXICO ALONG
26N94W 21N96W. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE FRONTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR ENHANCED BY MOIST S-SE 15-20 KT SFC WINDS. A
NOTICEABLE COOLER AIRMASS IS TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE NW GULF...
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 40'S AND LOW
50'S F ACROSS E TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E
ACROSS THE GULF BECOMING DIFFUSE IN THE ERN GULF TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE STRONG WINDS WITH A GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. SHIP...BUOY AND AN
1120 Z QSCAT PASS CONFIRM THIS WARNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA HAS MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEA CONDITIONS
REMAINING HAZARDOUS. BESIDES FOR THE STRONG TRADES...THE WEATHER
IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS ABUNDANT VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR
DOMINATES THE REGION. THIS DRY AIR IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS AND TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ERN CARIB. TYPICAL SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BENEATH THE STRONG MID LEVEL CAP...ARE BEING STIRRED
UP AND CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SHOW
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAYERS OF DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STARTING IN THE WRN ATLC...BROKEN PATCHES OF MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA W OF 73W N OF 27N DRIVEN BY WLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ON THE N PERIPHERY OF A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
NW CARIB.  A BROAD WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO
THE E OF THE RIDGE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. GFS SHOWS THIS
TROUGH SHARPENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING CUT OFF THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL LIKELY
GENERATE AND SPREAD MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE CIRCULATION. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N48W AND
EXTENDS MAINLY WWD ALONG 29N56W 29N68W. THIS FRONT ACTS A SURGE
IN NLY WINDS...AS INDICATED ON A RECENT QSCAT PASS. A BROKEN
SWATH OF MOISTURE...PRODUCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND SOME
LOW-LEVEL FORCING...COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 46W-55W N OF 26N. A
WEAK ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED SE OF THE COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 30N42W TO 24N49W. THIS SFC FEATURE MAY BE RELATED
TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N37W. A WIDE AREA OF BROKEN
CLOUDINESS AND LIKELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE TO THE E OF THE
UPPER LOW...N OF 18N BETWEEN 18W-35W...GENERATED AND DRIVEN BY
STRONG S-SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRES WITH THE CORE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOCATED N OF THE
REGION. A 1034 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 36N17W AND A 1031 MB IS
300 NM NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N60W. THIS STRONG RIDGING IS
INTERRUPTED BY THE COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW WITH BROAD
RIDGING STRETCHING ACROSS THE BASIN BLEMISHED BY A LINGERING SFC
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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