[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031851 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 03 2007

CORRECTION FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WIND AREA
FROM 73W TO 74W

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...3N10W 3N20W 3N30W 3N35W 2N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W...TO 1S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR AT 12W...5N20W
4N26W 5N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 46W AND 55W OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FROM
BRAZIL TO FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN WEST CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 27N108W. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
MOVES ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS
FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W...AND FROM 29N TO 33N
BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WATERS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...CURVING SOUTHWARD TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST OF 27N83W 24N83W 23N88W 22N91W
20N92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 27N
WEST OF 55W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 22N66W. THE 03/1500 UTC CIMSS
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW GOING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG AND NORTH OF 15N. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 14N75W. SOME OF THIS MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVES NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SOME OF THE WINDS MOVE REACH CENTRAL
AMERICA AND MOVE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER
AND MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM THE 14N75W CENTER AND
REACHES NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA-PANAMA. SOME OF THE FLOW CROSSES
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SIMPLY CONTINUES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. SOME OF THE MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REST OF THE AREA
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPERIENCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. THE MOST PROMINENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W AROUND THE 14N75W CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE U.S.A. ATLANTIC COAST SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WIND MAXIMA/JET STREAM IS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 60W. THE
FASTEST WINDS RANGE FROM 80 TO 100 KT FROM 25N TO 35N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W...AND FROM 80 TO 100 KT FROM 26N TO 36N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W. THESE DATA COME FROM THE 03/1500 UTC CIMSS
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF
20N WEST OF 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 27N40W TO A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N47W...TO
13N50W TO 13N58W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM
31N33W TO 28N40W TO 25N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N41W
20N45W 17N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 24N
BETWEEN 41W AND 47W.

$$
MT




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