[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 5N26W 3N35W 2N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 21W AND WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE W OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR NEARLY THREE
DAYS...CONTINUES TO INCH SLOWLY EASTWARD. AS OF 21Z...THE FRONT
WAS ANALYZED FROM JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE FL ACROSS THE BIG BEND
AREA TO NEAR 25N87W THEN STATIONARY TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W.
STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT HAS
TARGETED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS W CENTRAL FL
EXTENDING W INTO THE EXTREME E GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING QUICKLY TO THE E. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXISTS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE S OF 25N...WHERE THE FRONT IS STATIONARY. THERE
IS NOT INSTANT CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LINGERING FOR ABOUT 180 NM. A NOTICEABLE
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
AND NW GULF WHERE THE SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE
50'S F AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30'S F. WINDS ARE STRONGEST IN THE
SW GULF...IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...WHERE SFC HIGH PRES IS
SURGING SWD TIGHTENING THE GRAD. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND GRADUALLY BECOME
COMPLETELY STATIONARY DRAPED E-W ACROSS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY THIN OUT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS E.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST W OF 82W ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE E GULF. THIS MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR A DAY OR TWO AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY OR
NOT AT ALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIB CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER THANKS TO ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...LOCATED ON THE S SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE SW
ATLC AND ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC. WHILE TSTMS ARE NOT A CONCERN IN MUCH OF THE
CARIB...STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE AN ISSUE. ELY TRADES FROM 20 TO
30 KT ARE COMMON BASED ON SHIP...BUOY AND QSCAT DATA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THESE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES IS REINFORCED N
OF THE AREA. GFS SHOWS MINIMAL DEEP MOISTURE THRU MID-WEEK WITH
ONLY QUICK MOVING SHALLOW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO BE STIRRED UP BY
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERY PRONOUNCED LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN HAS SET
UP ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. STARTING IN THE W ATLC...AN
AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 23N69W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE STREAMING NE ACROSS THE EXTREME W ATLC...CURRENTLY CONTAINED
W OF 76W. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DRY...SINKING AIR COVERS THE
AREA BETWEEN 50W-76W. A LARGE HIGHLY ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DOMINATES THE REGION BETWEEN 35W AND 55W....WITH ITS AXIS
STRETCHING FURTHER W S OF 20N INTO THE CARIB. THIS TROUGH HAS
SHARPENED AND BECOME MORE ELONGATED SINCE YESTERDAY AS SHORT
WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THRU. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 32N44W AND EXTENDS SW TO 27N58W. THIS FRONT ACTS
AS A SURGE IN NLY WINDS. THE REMNANTS OF A OLD FRONT RUNS FROM
30N43W TO 23N49W. LOW-LEVEL LIFTING ALONG WITH MOIST SWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING A SWATH OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 38W-47W N
OF 23N.  FARTHER E...A LARGE STACKED RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTER 250 NM S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N16W. A
RELATED 1041 MB SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NE
NEAR 41N14W. THIS HIGH PRES ALONG WITH ABUNDANT STABLE AIR IS
SUPPLYING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS...EXTENSIVE WLY FLOW ON THE N SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE IS THE RULE WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION...EVEN WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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