[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 4N23W 3N35W 3N48W 2N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE GULF W OF 84W WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF FROM A 1017 MB LOW OVER SE ALABAMA ALONG
30N86W S ALONG 25N89W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 18N93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM
E OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM W
OF THE FRONT. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR W OF A LINE FROM
MISSISSIPPI COAST TO MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO. THE SE GULF
REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS
WELL AS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
W ATLC JUST CLIPS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST S OF GUADELOUPE WESTWARD S OF
JAMAICA TO NEAR 15N78W AND COVERS THE E TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
REGION LEAVING THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. SOME
WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE USHERED IN ON
STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT ALSO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS NOW ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC JUST E OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N73W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 70W. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 40W-70W WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A SHEAR AXIS. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY SE EXTENDS TO THE REGION
NEAR 32N48W W TO 28N57W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 28N65W. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N44W SW TO 22N59W. A VERY BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ON THE E SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N50W TO BEYOND 32N44W. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED. DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS
IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...THUS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS CAN FORM.

$$
WALLACE





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