[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 4N14W 4N21W 1N28W 1N38W ACROSS
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 11W-32W AND FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER
THE SE US AND INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC EXTENDS W OVER THE GULF ALONG 27N TO 90W WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. DRY AIR REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF THE GULF S OF 27N. THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS
CENTERED MOSTLY N OF THE REGION WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT
EXTENDING FROM OVER MEXICO TO ACROSS FLORIDA N OF 25N SUPPLYING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE N GULF TO INLAND OVER SE US WITH
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM TEXAS NEAR
27N97W TO FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE GULF UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ON
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CLIPS THE N CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N FROM THE CENTRAL LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO CENTRAL
CUBA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W SW TO 13N76W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-17N
E OF 84W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK EASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 72W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 48W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING SW TO 26N46W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N59W CONTINUING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 18N64W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS CENTERED MOSTLY N OF
THE REGION WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SE
US INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF A LINE FROM 25N80W 25N57W TO
BEYOND 32N34W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 22N35W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N22W. A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR
16N16W S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 13N30W 15N44W TO NEAR
10N59W UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC.
DRY UPPER AIR WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLC
WITH LOW LEVEL BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS E OF 60W. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH FORMING A WEAKNESS AND A 1024 MB
HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N62W WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING
W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A 1023 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N23W.

$$
WALLACE



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