[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151208
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1145 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 37W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 3S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG
27N TO 24N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER...AND THEN IT CURVES
NORTHWESTWARD IN EASTERN MEXICO BEYOND FAR WEST TEXAS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOME SECTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF TODAY ARE IN THE LOW 20S FAHRENHEIT FOR
NORTHERN GEORGIA AND IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
THE MINIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
IS IN THE LOW 50S...AND IN THE LOW 40S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
WEST OF 20N63W-12N71W AT THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA. THIS FLOW FOLLOWS THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF WEDNESDAY...THAT ORIGINALLY HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO TWO DAYS AGO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THIS LINE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALSO COVERS EVERYTHING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK...IN REFERENCE TO THE ISOBARIC PATTERN FROM
THE 15/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EAST OF 70W FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...BECOMING CYCLONIC SOUTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND CONTINUING AS ANTICYCLONIC
EVERYWHERE WEST OF 80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS
EAST OF 67W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 28N59W BEYOND 32N63W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N73W
TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 27N. GENERALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 49W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RUNS FROM 14N54W TO 25N48W BEYOND 32N48W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N37W TO 26N33W BEYOND 31N29W.
REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE FROM 10N
TO 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N20W TO 30N26W 26N31W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N21W TO 28N38W.

$$
MT




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