[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT
25W...1S30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S48W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM EQ-6N
BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND
FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF WHILE A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS
AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT COVERING THE SE GULF...THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. PART OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA. WINDS N OF THE FRONT
ARE FROM THE NE AT 10-20 KT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE NWD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SOME
SHOWERS HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COLD AIR HAS
PENETRATED INTO THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS DEPICTED BY RATHER
UNIFORM STRATUS CLOUDS COVER AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED
THERE ON THE 21Z MAP. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS OVER THE NW QUADRANT
OF THE GULF. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME CURVED
LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
TROUGH IS ENTERING THE FAR W GULF. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE E GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT MID/UPPER DRY AIR
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W. THE SLY WINDS ON THE W PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER HIGH IS DRAWING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
SOUTH AMERICA INTO PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE
DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC COLD FRONT IS
GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
HISPANIOLA. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE E
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW FROM 32N50W
TO NEAR 24N75W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE N
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONT.  WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
25N58W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N69W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 31N40W.
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL-EAST ATLC OCEAN. THIS
FEATURE IS HELPING TO KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA ALSO
DOMINATES THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE
E ATLC ALONG 29/30W.

$$
GR





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