[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
5N8W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 35W...TO 1S40W...
TO THE NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S44W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...
FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 19W AND 20W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN
23W AND 26W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SMALL CLUSTERS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11 BETWEEN 23W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 19N111W...HELPING TO PUSH MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO
INTO THE OPEN GULF WATERS. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO THROUGH 20N100W...UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS
THE GULF WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY OFF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 27N87W
24N87W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO 21N87W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH
A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING FROM TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA AND THEN BECOMING NOT SO APPARENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUGGING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
NOW THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S.A.
THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT JUST BARELY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS DEVELOPING
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N72W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE WHICH STARTS IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE...
AND IT IS AT ITS COMPARATIVELY MOST CONCENTRATED AMOUNT NEAR THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CENTER. EASTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MOSTLY EAST OF 67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TO 28N66W.
THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING MORE THAN ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N70W 27N77W. A SECOND
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 30N67W. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 28N61W 22N75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
29N55W 27N61W 24N72W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO 20N WEST OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 22N25W BEYOND 32N26W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N28W. A TROUGH GOES FROM
THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N31W AND MAYBE TO 10N40W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST
EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 40W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 31N43W TO 27N50W TO 24N60W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO NEAR 32N6W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N23W TO 28N34W TO 23N49W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE 31N43W 24N60W STATIONARY FRONT.

$$
MT




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