[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N8W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2S47W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL CORNER OF AFRICA FROM 4N TO
5N BETWEEN 7W AND 8W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 42W AND 45W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 5N
BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 26N113W...HELPING TO PUSH MOISTURE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO. MOISTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE
MOISTURE RIGHT NOW STILL IS CONFINED TO THE AREA OF MEXICO NORTH
OF 20N WEST OF 100W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH
A SLIGHT HINT OF A WEAK TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N88W TO 19N89W IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N76W JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N87W...TO 25N94W TO
INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 18N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC IS ON TOP OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS AT ITS COMPARATIVELY MOST CONCENTRATED
AMOUNT SOUTH OF 15N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PASSING OVER MEXICO WITHIN 420 NM
WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...TOWARD GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
EAST OF 70W...NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND FROM
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W.
THE JET STREAM STILL CONSISTS OF WESTERLY FLOW FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH 26N70W 28N60W 32N44W TO
37N30W...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES...AND CURVING TOWARD
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS ANTICYCLONIC NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN MOROCCO NOW HAS SHIFTED
MUCH MORE TO AN ALGERIA-TO-MAURITANIA LINE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N34W. A TROUGH GOES
FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 14N50W. A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 31N46W TO 27N55W TO 24N62W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N62W TO 23N70W TO 22N77W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N8W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 28N26W TO A SECOND 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
25N42W TO 23N56W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N46W 24N62W COLD FRONT.

$$
MT


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