[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N25W 1N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W CONTINUING ALONG 2S40W INTO NE BRAZIL. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-25W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N E OF 15W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS INVADING THE
GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA...GIVING THE AREA MODERATE TO
STRONG NELY WINDS. THIS MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 25
TO 30 KT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF...INCLUDING
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG NE TO E
WINDS OVER SRN GULF WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUE. A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SINCE
YESTERDAY. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING MORE OF THE SAME TODAY
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF W CUBA WHERE THE FRONT LIES. THIS FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SE OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED BY UPPER
LEVEL SWLY FLOW TO THE E OF A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR IS
SHOWING AND AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE MEXICO AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE BASIN
AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE ALSO
DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...RESULTING
IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA...PARTICULARLY
THE SW CARIBBEAN. BELOW THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...TYPICAL
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADES...MAINLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...
ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA E OF 78W. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A LITTLE IN
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB BEGINNING TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS NE
INTO THE W-CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH HISPANIOLA. PLENTY OF DRY AND
STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A
PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS
ANTICYCLONE AFFECTING THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND THE
E-CENTRAL ATLC E OF 50W. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLC AND THE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 32N18W...
16N35W CONTINUING MAINLY WESTWARD TO NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER WEST AFRICA. SWLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE DRAWING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY
ISLANDS INTO AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE
OVER THE W ATLC. ONE IS THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHICH CONTINUES
ALONG THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND ATLC AS A COLD FRONT. THE SECOND
ONE IS A REINFORCING FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N75W THEN
CONTINUES MAINLY WWD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND NE GULF OF
MEXICO. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/RAIN
IS BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS. A 1029 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED NEAR
292N41W COVERS THE ATLC E OF THE 65W AND THE NE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
GR





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