[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 33W TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
4N10W 5N20W...AND WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N20W
4N26W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN NEAR 18N110W TO WESTERN MEXICO NEAR 24N105W...TO THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 28N100W...BECOMING A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
SOMEWHERE IN THERE FROM WESTERN MEXICO TO THE BORDER WITH
TEXAS...AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND EAST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FROM MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS...CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA EXCEPT FOR THE PART SOUTHEAST OF 28N80W 23N87W 19N90W.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FROM ANDROS ISLAND
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. RAIN IS EASILY WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE IT RAINED
FOR PRACTICALLY THE WHOLE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 500 MB TO 350 MB COVERS THE AREA.
EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB.
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 74W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS EAST
OF 67W AND NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W BASICALLY AROUND
HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW LEAVES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT CROSSES FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...GOING NORTH
OF 30N AS FAR AS 30W...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
36N23W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 36N23W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
27N27W 19N34W 10N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 38N25W IN THE AZORES AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 30N21W AND 25N29W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 50W...
AND SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 31N39W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 30W.

$$
MT



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