[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N22W 3N36W EQUATOR45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 12W-15W AND BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ADVERTISED STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ON THE WAY. AS OF
03Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SW LOUISIANA TO EXTREME S
TEXAS ALONG 30N93W 27N99W. ONLY A BROKEN THIN CLOUD LINE MARKS
THE FRONT ON NIGHT CHANNEL SAT IMAGES. A DISSIPATING STALLED
FRONT IS STILL LINGERING IN THE E CENTRAL AND MIDDLE GULF FROM
JUST N OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO A FAINT 1015 MB FRONTAL WAVE
NEAR 27N89W. NO ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS/SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. PATCHY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE IS APPARENT ON A RECENT QSCAT PASS. WIND AND SEA
CONDITIONS ARE RELAXED AT THE MOMENT...BUT THIS IS ABOUT TO
CHANGE QUITE DRASTICALLY AS NLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20 FT...HIGHEST IN THE SW
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD CENTERED NEAR
15N75W. WIDESPREAD DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WV IMAGES ESPECIALLY E OF
70W WHERE THE FLOW ALOFT IS CONFLUENT DUE TO A HIGHLY ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS STABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITING THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF STREAMS OF
MOISTURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING TO ABOUT 68W. ONLY
PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIB ON THE SLY
BRANCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. ELY TRADES ARE STILL ON THE
STRONG SIDE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIB. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST
WINDS...GALE FORCE...WILL BE OUT OF THE N BEGINNING EARLY WED IN
THE NW CARIB BEHIND AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WEAKENING 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT ATTEMPTED TO BECOME A
SUBTROPICAL STORM IS CENTERED NEAR 25N38W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
LIKELY STILL OCCURRING IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE AS INDICATED BY A
2058 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. HOWEVER...THIS GALE EVENT IS FORECAST TO
COME TO AN END IN ABOUT 24-30 HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
FILL. CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT
AND EVEN THERE CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY WARMER THAN -60 C.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUED WSW MOTION...STEERED
BY A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE...UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
OR SOONER. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE
RIDGING...EXCEPT FOR A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
EXTREME W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LITTLE
ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE FRONT. A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SW ATLC BEGINNING LATER TODAY
INCREASING NLY WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE BEHIND IT. AN
UPPER JET...WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 120 KT...ORIGINATES NEAR
10N56W AND EXTENDS NE THRU 21N38W 25N15W. WIDESPREAD DENSE
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA
WITHIN 600 NM SSE OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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