[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260612
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE COASTAL BORDER TO 6N15W 4N20W 4N26W
3N30W 3N44W TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AT
49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 50W...
AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 50W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 12N45W 23N33W BEYOND
23N16W UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WELL-DEVELOPED TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT MOVED
FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA 24 HOURS AGO EVENTUALLY MOVED THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ALSO...AND NOW FINDS ITSELF WITH A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA/NORTHWESTERN
GEORGIA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH COVERS THE AREA
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 90W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CROSSES SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT STARTED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE BAHAMAS AT LEAST 24 TO 30 HOURS AGO NOW
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO GRAND CAYMAN.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/RIDGE IS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 9N79W 18N80W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW/WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
15N EAST OF 78W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE
TO LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W...INCLUDING
OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THEN CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 76W AND
84W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CONCENTRATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE MAP ON THE 26/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS. PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 53W. THE SAME DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24 HOURS AGO REMAINS
AT THIS TIME. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED
AND NOW IS NEAR 28N41W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC
CENTER TO 22N43W 17N52W 16N59W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N42W. A WARM
FRONT GOES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER BEYOND 32N38W.
A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N44W 20N48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N38W 26N37W 28N36W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
17N54W 18N47W 22N39W 24N36W.

$$
MT


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