[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 3N43W 2N52W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 29W TO THE COST OF W
AFRICA. A BROAD AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 3N-13N
BETWEEN 23W-50W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE SE US AND THE GULF WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
IN THE BIG BEND AREA ALONG 24N87W THEN SLOWER AS IT ENTERS
MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ AT 16/0900 UTC WHILE THE REMNANTS OF OLGA
HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY THIS FRONT. HEAVY RAINS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE EXTENDING
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR FORT MYERS INTO THE W ATLC. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM W OF
THE FRONT W OF 89W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR W OF THE FRONT WITH SOME SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE OVER THE SW GULF AND A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER S/CENTRAL TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
HIGH IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 77W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN CREATING A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W SW TO THE TIP OF
COLOMBIA. MOSTLY DRY STABLE UPPER AIR REIGNS OVER ALL OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE SE WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
BETWEEN 70W-83W. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER W CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HEAVY RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE E OF THE FRONT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO BEYOND 32N79W. AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W WHILE
AN UPPER TROUGH IS S OF 25N FROM 55W-70W INCLUDING THE NE
CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 35W WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE NW COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
20N20W THROUGH A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N20W ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 33N14W. UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS
AND A JET STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 80 TO 120 KT EXTENDS
ALONG 15N35W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA NEAR
19N16W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N54W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE



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