[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N18W 6N32W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 17W-25W AND FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 31W-45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE N GULF COAST EXTENDING ACROSS SE
GEORGIA INTO THE GULF JUST E OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA S OF
LOUISIANA COAST INTO E TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON AS A WARM FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR SO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE REMNANTS OF OLGA ARE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH NNE THROUGH THE
E YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT
MYERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N E OF 88W ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS FLORIDA
COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF OLGA...A 1006 MB LOW...REMAINS IN THE W
CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N86W EXTENDING A
SURFACE TROUGH NNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE E YUCATAN
CHANNEL/W CUBA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N W OF 84W WITH A SMALL BURST OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE NW OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. AN UPPER HIGH IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO SW TO A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER AIR
OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS MAINLY DRY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N FROM 80W-84W AND SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N FROM COLOMBIA
TO COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
REMNANTS OF OLGA IN THE W CARIBBEAN CROSSES FLORIDA OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO VERO BEACH TO NEAR 29N79W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-32N W OF 76W TO INLAND
OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 31N76W ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE. THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO
RICO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH DRY STABLE AIR.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF 45W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N30W SW TO 25N40W. A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH W OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 20N20W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG 24N22W TO 22N27W BUT DUE TO THE DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR
ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE
LOW. UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE TROPICS AND A JET
STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDING ALONG
15N40W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THEN NE TO OVER WESTERN SAHARA
AFRICA. OTHERWISE THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA FROM 40W-75W ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 28N58W.

$$
WALLACE


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