[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE TO 6N20W 4N30W 1N40W
THROUGH THE EQUATOR AT 50W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
8N TO 9N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N24W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
10W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO PASSES THROUGH THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER NEAR 31N85W TO 30N86W TO 29N90W TO
28N93W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N93W TO 28N95W...
CURVING TO 26N97W TO 22N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
IN MEXICO FROM 22N97W TO 22N99W 24N99W 26N100W AND BEYOND
30N102W AT THE TEXAS BORDER WITH MEXICO EAST OF THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY CONNECTS TO A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
FOR THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WEAK. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE TEXAS BIG BEND DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA OF THE U.S.A. FOG AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF WATERS...AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMNANT 1009 MB "OLGA"
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE TROUGH PASSES OVER WESTERN CUBA TO
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 30N79W IN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 28N
EAST OF 89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N80W 29N76W BEYOND 31N70W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF "OLGA" IS ABOUT
150 NM WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND ABOUT 190 NM EAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION FOR THIS LOW CENTER IS IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH
OF 15N WEST OF 83W. THE COMPARATIVELY DEEPEST CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 10 TO 15 NM RADIUS OF 19N84W.
SHOWERS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION IN CLOUD BANDS
ARE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. OTHER CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W.
A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN COASTAL
COLOMBIA TO THE WATERS JUST EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/
EASTERN HONDURAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IS NORTH OF THE VENEZUELA COAST...SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 63W AND
73W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH
0F 14N EAST OF 65W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 30W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 28N21W TO 22N27W TO 13N40W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 36N20W TO A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 30N21W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N EAST OF THE MADEIRA-TO-13N40W
TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 32N30W TO 25N40W FROM
A WEAKENING BOUNDARY FROM 24 HOURS AGO. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 31N31W 28N34W 25N40W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N40W 22N45W 19N51W.

$$
MT


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