[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N22W 3N38W 1N46W EQUATOR49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 20W-25W AND
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-30W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MAINLY STATIONARY FROM SRN
MISSISSIPPI TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 21N98W THEN ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE. DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY DETECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. MUCH MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP IS
OVER SE FLA...THE KEYS AND THE STRAITS. THIS MOISTURE IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLGA WHICH IS STILL
SPINNING IN THE NW CARIB. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BENEATH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEXT FRONT...EXPECTED
TO BE A FAIRLY POTENT ONE...WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER EARLY
SAT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NLY WINDS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
WITH THIS FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OLGA'S REMNANTS IS STILL SPINNING IN THE NW CARIB NEAR
19.5N83W...ANALYZED 1009 MB. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
WELL DEFINED DEEP CONVECTION IS JUST ABOUT ABSENT. FAIRLY DENSE
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD BANDED STRUCTURES ARE N OF THE CENTER
NEAR THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF CUBA. SHALLOWER SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. A LOW-LEVEL
ELY SURGE IS APPARENT ON NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES ALONG 78W OR
SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST NEAR THE SURGE LINE FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 77W-79W. ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXISTS E OF THERE CARRIED BY
STRONG ELY TRADES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE WRN HALF AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN PORTIONS. STRONG
ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE CARIB S OF 13N E OF 67W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
OLGA...ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SE FLORIDA...THE KEYS AND THE
FLA STRAITS. FOR DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN
SECTIONS ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS FAIRLY QUIET UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN. THE RIDGE
GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA W OF ABOUT 60W INCLUDING THE ERN GULF.
MID AND UPPER TROUGHING...SUPPORTING BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...CONTROLS THE PATTERN E OF 60W. THE LARGEST TROUGH
AMPLIFIER IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A
FAIRLY SWIFT W TO SWLY JET...WITH CORE WINDS IN THE 100-120 KT
RANGE...ORIGINATES NEAR THE SE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
EXTENDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 16N39W 23N24W 29N14W.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS...POSSIBLY ENHANCED SOME BY
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST.

THE SFC PATTERN IS MAINLY CONTROLLED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1025
MB HIGH NEAR 30N62W. RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE HIGH
IS PRODUCING STRONG ELY TRADES S OF 25N W OF 40W. A VERY WEAK
1020 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N33W WITH A TROUGH HANGING SW TO
25N40W...PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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