[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 5N23W 3N40W INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL ALONG 50W
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S.  SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY DISSIPATING...FROM COASTAL VENEZUELA
AND COASTAL GUYANA TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN 32W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 13W AND 18W. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS WITHIN
360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N112W 26N109W...TO 32N101W IN WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS ALL THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF 30N AND MUCH OF MEXICO WEST OF
100W...INTO TEXAS...AND BEYOND. A SEPARATE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS MADE ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD FROM 20N100W IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 90W. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W TO 26N101W...AND THEN
STATIONARY FROM 26N101W TO 28N102W IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
FRONT LACKS THE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC TROUGH IN ORDER TO SUPPORT IT.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF 30N87W
24N92W 19N95W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
1008 MB REMNANT LOW OF OLGA IS SOUTH OF 24N EAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 82W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1008 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF OLGA IS ABOUT
30 NM SOUTH OF LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC AND ABOUT 75 NM
EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS...APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN WESTERN JAMAICA AND 84W...FROM CUBA TO 25N
BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
73W AND 78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
REMNANT OF OLGA COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 24N EAST
OF 82W...AROUND A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 10N67W 14N75W 20N80W TO WESTERN CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN
65W AND 82W IN GENERAL. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA OF MOISTURE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W.
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE MIDDLE
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W...RELATED
TO A TROUGH THROUGH 32N23W 25N31W 15N35W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 14N57W 14N40W 20N25W. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO A 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 31N34W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N40W.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 23N43W
26N33W 30N23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18W FROM 22N TO 34N.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W
NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE AZORES.

$$
MT


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