[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Dec 12 08:32:33 CST 2007
WTNT42 KNHC 121431
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1000 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007
OLGA LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND BASED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PROBABLY ALSO LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...WE WILL HANG ON TO OLGA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS JUST IN CASE DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS OR WEST WINDS BECOME
EVIDENT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 10Z...AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THERE REMAINS A BAND OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON THESE DATA.
THE VORTICITY CENTER HAS ACCELERATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 270/20. OLGA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THIS RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION THERE IS NOT
EXPECTED.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN HISPANIOLA. SOME OF
THESE RAINS SHOULD SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 19.1N 75.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 19.2N 77.6W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 80.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/0000Z 20.0N 82.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/1200Z 20.5N 84.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
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