[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA CONTINUES MOVING WWD ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE. AT 15Z...OLGA WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 68.0W OR ABOUT
110 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF WEST AT 13 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 63W-70W. AS OF 12Z...SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
REPORTED RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1.45 IN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OF 2-4 IN IS EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 IN POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 IN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A HIGH CONCERN
WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER
THE ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N25W 7N35W 7N45W AND INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 54N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-38W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 43W-48W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH THE GULF FROM A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE
W ATLC USHERING IN PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE PRIMARILY E TO SE 15-20 KTS WITH 25 KT
IN THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA. LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY
STABLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS SQUALLS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA ARE ROTATING THROUGH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS NOTED IN SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATES STORM TOTAL PRECIP UP TO 8 INCHES OVER CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO. THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PARTICULARLY
N OF 17N AND W OF 74W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR PANAMA FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE E PAC ITCZ. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N E OF 73W. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEATHER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION IS CONFINED TO SUBTROPICAL
STORM OLGA...SEE ABOVE FOR DETAILS...EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. STACKED SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
CONTROLS THE PATTERN IN THE W ATLC. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SFC RIDGE ALONG 32N AND OLGA IS PRODUCING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS THAT EXTEND UP TO 240 NM FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED
ACROSS THE W ATLC BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SLY FLOW ON THE
E SIDE OF OLGA IS SPREADING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WELL TO THE N
AND NE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC REMAIN TRANQUIL
WITH SFC RIDGING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N46W DOMINATING
THE PATTERN. BETWEEN 9N-24N...THE MID AND UPPER FLOW IS FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE ATLC AIDING IN THE TRANQUILITY.


$$
WADDINGTON



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