[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 24N54W 15N57W
5N57W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 55W-58W.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FROM THE TROUGH WITH TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND MOVE TOWARDS HISPANIOLA.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N30W 4N40W 3N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 30W-37W...
AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 41W-44W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15
KT SELY FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE AGAIN DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE E
OF 92W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW
GULF W OF 92W.  EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT...
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 13N DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N71W.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.
A 1029 MB HIGH IS NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS AT 37N26W.   IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS W OF 75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N56W CONTRIBUTING TO
THE CONVECTION OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N33W.  IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 2N37W.  MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS E OF
50W FROM 10N-25N.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net