[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090609 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 09 2007

COR FOR MODIFYING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION...
ERASING SOME LINES THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN INCLUDED

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION OF ST1.5 WAS ASSIGNED TO A LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 14N TO 23N. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA ALONG 8N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 80W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 22N52W TO 12N63W TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...
AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STILL OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 8N25W 5N45W 7N52W INTO GUYANA NEAR 5N60W. ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 48W AND
50W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION
FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
5N TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE
SOUTH OF 4N EAST OF 30W.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING CALIFORNIA AND REACHING
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE EASILY WILL SWEEP ACROSS
MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST. A BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS MEXICO NOW..EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF THE U.S.A. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N91W TO 21N93W TO 19N98W
IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 23N82W
IN WESTERN CUBA BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 23N87W TO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA
WEST OF 80W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM
16 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND NOW IS PRIMARILY ALONG
80W. A BIG CHUNK OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS TAKEN UP BY THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AT THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS NEAR 18N54W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 80W HAS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
30N35W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 34N BETWEEN 27W AND 42W.
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
AFRICA NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 20W.

$$
MT




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