[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 5N11W 6N17W 4N27W 5N40W 2N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 7W TO ACROSS
THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM JUST S OF THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
8W-17W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 18W-34W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING A FRONT THROUGH
THE W ATLC BECOMING STATIONARY BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA TO E TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. THIS FRONT
IS BEGINNING TO PUSH N AS A WARM FRONT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE E US MOVES E INTO THE NW ATLC. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM SE LOUISIANA OFF THE TEXAS COAST TO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN
AND W ATLC. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC.
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH SUN. MODERATE NE TO E TRADE
WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN
REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W TO NEAR 29N74W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH. THE AIR IS SOMEWHAT DRY AND
STABLE OVER THE REGION WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL N OF THE
REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 74W-79W. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
22N67W TO OVER THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALSO GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 67W-70W. OTHERWISE THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COVERING THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE AZORES IS INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 27N56W TO BEYOND 32N51W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 22N59W TO 28N54W AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
24N57W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A RATHER LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE E
ATLC E OF 40W CENTERED NEAR 24N25W MOVING WESTWARD WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB
HIGH SE OF THE AZORES. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL
ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 8W/9W TO NEAR 40W ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N ACROSS THE TROPICS INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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