[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N2E 2N20W 2N40W AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 1S 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-39W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN DOMINATES THE GULF RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT N OF 26N WHERE
W TO NW WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE N OR NE LATER TONIGHT.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE GULF AND
IS NOW IN THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS E OF 81W. REMNANT SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. A SFC TROUGH
IS DEPICTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM 30N84W TO 24N86W. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE NRN GULF. ALOFT...A WELL DEFINED CUT-OFF LOW IS
SPINNING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ADVECTING A PLUME OF CLOUDINESS
INTO THE WRN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER W TO NW
UPPER FLOW INDUCING STABLE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THU.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK
1011 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
REGION. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOT THE
AREA...OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY CLOUD FREE. WINDS
REMAINS LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK PRES
PATTERN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA.
STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THU THROUGH FRI WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO
THE ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK LOW PRES RESIDES IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N78W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE STRAIGHTS OF
FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ESE TO NEAR
26N72W AND CONTINUES AS COLD FRONT ALONG 26N70W 29N60W AND
BEYOND 31N57W. A THIN BAND OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...A
1018 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N58W. SOUTH OF THE HIGH...A
WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 58W FROM 11N-19N.
A BATCH OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS EAST OF THE TROUGH
FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 55W-57W. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
BEYOND 32N49W TO 22N54W WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE
MOSTLY N OF 28N. A SFC RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 39N21W.
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS IN THE SUBTROPICS
AND MID-LATITUDES. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING STRONG ZONAL
FLOW IN THE TROPICS WHICH IS ADVECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

$$
WADDINGTON




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