[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040533 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0500 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N25W 5N35W 3N45W AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 3N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
4N-10N EAST OF 27W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W AND 39W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 26N83W 24N90W 22N93W 19N96W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT NLY WINDS ARE N
OF THE FRONT WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF 94W. S OF THE FRONT
NLY WINDS DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT.  A THIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS ABOVE THE
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
79W-82W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SSE OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 64W-65W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PROVIDING LIGHT N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
ALOFT...DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N71W AND
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W ATLC CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N80W. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST... A 1020 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 28N58N. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 22N51W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO NEAR 18N60W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE
LOW CENTER NE ALONG 23N50W 24N45W 28N40W AND EXITS THE REGION
NEAR 32N36W. N OF 29N A BROAD BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDS UP TO 200
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 16N57W TO 8N58W. A SIMILAR TROUGH BREAKS
THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 47W AND STRETCHES FROM 1N-9N. ALOFT...A
BROAD E-W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 18N
TRANSPORTING UPPER MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE EAST.
$$
MT/RJW





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