[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 21N DRIFTING W WITH A 1011
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N.  BROAD ELONGATED LOW/MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
26W-40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
33W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 18W MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1008
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N.  LOW AMPLITUDE LOW/MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN
50W-61W.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
54W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
INVERTED-V CURVATURE REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN
EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL SWIRL NEAR 12N79W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-80W...AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
75W-81W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 14N30W 8N40W 11N58W 11N70W.
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 13W-20W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 30W-53W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N94W 18N98W
AND IS MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 93W-98W.  A
1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO
29N89W.  ELSEWHERE...PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ALONG THE NW GULF
COAST FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 90W-96W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF W OF 95W.  A TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF 88W-95W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N
FLORIDA NEAR NEAR 30N82W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST
OF THE GULF.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND OVER THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  SEE ABOVE.
TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT WITH SOME 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.  ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 65W-67W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF COLOMBIA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
71W-77W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 85W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W.  A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN SEA 58W-70W.  EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTEND SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W.  PATCHES
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
26N-35N BETWEEN 62W-72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 76W-80W.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS N
OF THE AREA NEAR 37N50W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 30N45W 30N51W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND E OF 35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N67W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NEAR 20N57W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N48W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA






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