[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 301442
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD.  INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS.  THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE LOW WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BEFORE BECOMING OVERTAKEN BY THE
FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR.  NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISORGANIZED NON-TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS
DIMINISHED...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH



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