[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300508
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION
COVERING THE AREA FROM 25W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
28W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 17W MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION
COVERING THE AREA FROM 43W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 24N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
NARROW INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS WEAK IN THE CARIBBEAN AND IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE RATHER DRY STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER N OF 17N ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE TURKS
AND CAICOS BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN
UPPER HIGH IS JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS ENHANCING CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N FROM
87W-95W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N15W 10N35W 11N46W 8N61W. IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF SW AFRICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 10W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-47W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NE MEXICO AND TEXAS TO OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE W GULF W OF 94W GENERATING
ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W. AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF WITHIN 90/120 OF THE W COAST FROM
FLORIDA BAY TO THE BIG BEND AREA. THE N GULF COAST REMAINS CLEAR
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM 72W-83W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W/73W. EASTERLY UPPER
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INDUCING A WEAK UPPER HIGH OVER THE AREA.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N E OF 79W. DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 69W BROUGHT IN ON
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 71W ACROSS FLORIDA AND
S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 29N74W.
AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N72W TO A 1014
MB LOW NEAR 30N76W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO
28N79W. ALL THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-80W. A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
32N60W JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W WITH YET A THIRD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N39W TO
19N47W. AN UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
22N55W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE ATLC E OF 60W AND
COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC E OF 70W
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

$$
WALLACE




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