[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. BROAD INVERTED-V
CURVATURE WITH A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 17W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. BROAD LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 41W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE HAS GAINED IN AMPLITUDE N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. HOWEVER
IT REMAINS NARROW INVERTED-V CURVATURE AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE RATHER DRY STABLE
AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM THE TIP OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W TO 24N66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 23N MOVING W 10 KT. AN UPPER
HIGH IS JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS ENHANCING CONVECTION. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
13N-23N BETWEEN 82W-89W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 8N31W 10N46W 7N61W. IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF W AFRICA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 17W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-33W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO AND TEXAS
TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE W GULF W OF 93W
GENERATING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO
TO W LOUISIANA. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS INLAND OVER SW GEORGIA
COVERING THE FAR NE GULF. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH N OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THERE IS
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N BETWEEN 92W-97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 16N82W EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA TO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ENHANCING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W. EASTERLY
UPPER FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
WHERE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N FROM 77W-85W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N
E OF 81W. DRY RATHER STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE ESE TO NEAR
29N70W AND COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W. AN UPPER LOW IS
IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N63W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH SSW
TO OVER HISPANIOLA/E CUBA AND NNE TO JUST BEYOND 32N60W
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 30W-50W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LOW NEAR 29N40W AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N35W SW ALONG 29N40W THEN W TO 29N48W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD
UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N53W WITH DRY
STABLE AIR COVERING THE ATLC E OF 60W AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC ANCHORED WITH A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 34N58W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

$$
WALLACE



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