[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 1011
MB LOW WAS ADDED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N BASED ON A QUIKSCAT
DATA. BROAD WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF
THE LOW/WAVE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 18W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. BROAD LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NARROW
INVERTED-V CURVATURE EVEN THOUGH THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER RATHER
DRY STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 66W-69W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 23N MOVING W 10 KT. A
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS
OVER BELIZE WITH AN UPPER HIGH NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-23N
BETWEEN 82W-89W.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 95W HAS BEEN DROPPED. A 1008 MB
LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THE E PACIFIC REGION IS UNDER SW SURFACE FLOW THUS
TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOT ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR EXISTENCE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 10N24W 9N31W 10N40W 8N60W.
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF W AFRICA FROM 15N-19N E OF 18W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 23W-40W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO NNE
TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE W GULF W OF 91W
GENERATING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 95W. AN
UPPER HIGH IS INLAND OVER S GEORGIA COVERING THE FAR NE GULF.
THE UPPER LOW OVER BELIZE EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH N OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
87W-91W...WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA
BAY TO THE BIG BEND AREA...AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS W OF
ANDROS ISLANDS TO THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E
OF 94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER BELIZE COVERING THE FAR W OF CARIBBEAN W OF
87W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE UPPER HIGH IS JUST TO THE E
NEAR 18N84W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS TO JUST ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
85W/86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
DRAWN TOWARD THE TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 10N78W
TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. EASTERLY UPPER FLOW COVERS
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW DOMINATES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC. DRY RATHER STABLE AIR COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER S GEORGIA EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE E TO NEAR
30N70W AND COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 70W. AN UPPER LOW IS
IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N63W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH SSW
TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND NNE TO JUST BEYOND 32N59W GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 59W-65W.
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N
FROM 30W-45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W SW ALONG 29N44W TO NEAR 31N51W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT E OF
45W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
22N54W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE ATLC E OF 50W AND
COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC ANCHORED
WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N54W GIVES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

$$
WALLACE




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