[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 16W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. BROAD LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 34W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
INVERTED-V CURVATURE HAS SPREAD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE
WAVE MOVED INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW/MID
LEVEL LOW ROTATION IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N BUT STILL NO
INDICATION OF A SURFACE LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 79W-85W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N29W 7N46W 8N60W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 26W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN
26W-52W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COVERING THE W GULF W OF 89W GENERATING ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 89W. AN UPPER HIGH IS INLAND OVER E
GEORGIA COVERING THE NE GULF GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N GULF COAST N OF 27N W OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN CLIPS THE SE GULF WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W COVERING THE AREA
W OF 82W  FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W OF 84W AND ENHANCING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W. A BROAD
UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N69W AND COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE
IS A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
83W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST INLAND OVER E GEORGIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING NE OUT OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 27N63W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W AND DIPPING S OVER THE E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 72W-77W. A
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W SW TO 24N68W
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/180 NM OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS PUSHING S INTO THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N FROM 24W-45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT N OF THE REGION. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
REGION FROM 31N37W TO 26N47W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS
ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N52W WITH DRY STABLE AIR
COVERING THE ATLC E OF 55W AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC GIVES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

$$
WALLACE



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