[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 17W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH A
1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75/90
OF THE LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 34W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NARROW
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS CLEARLY DEFINED WITH THE WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
10N56W ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO 14N61W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW/MID
LEVEL LOW ROTATION IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N BUT STILL NO
INDICATION OF A SURFACE LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 79W-84W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL
DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N24W 10N33W 7N48W 9N58W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 7N-14N E OF 21W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM 8N21W TO 5N31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 32W-45W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE W GULF W OF 90W GENERATING ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF S MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS INLAND OVER E GEORGIA COVERING THE
NE GULF FORCING THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST FROM 25N-28N
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG
THE N GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN CLIPS THE SE GULF WITH
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N84W COVERING THE AREA
N OF 15N W OF 81W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 81W AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
82W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N69W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE IS A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST INLAND OVER E GEORGIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING NE OUT OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 27N63W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 31N37W ALONG 29N43W 31N53W TO NEAR 25N67W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE UPPER LOW. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED INT HE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 23N51W WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA E OF 55W
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC COUPLES TO GIVE THE MOST OF THE ATLC FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

$$
WALLACE


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