[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 36W S OF
17W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 1012 MB LOW IS FOUND ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10.5N36W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 32W-42W.
FURTHER N...AN AREA OF DRY AIR/AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE NORTHERN
END OF THE WAVE N OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  A
WEAK INVERTED-V PATTERN IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AFFECTING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHILE A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NOTED BETWEEN
BARBADOS AND TRINIDAD. MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD
AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TOMORROW...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 20N. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WILL BE INTERACTING
WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO
20 MPH. A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EXHIBITING CYCLONIC TURNING
IS LOCATED NEAR 13N81W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS JUST N OF THIS SWIRL.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W S OF 22N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N25W 10N35W 7N45W 8N60W.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 10W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF
AXIS 19W AND 26W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF TAMPICO
YESTERDAY EVENING MADE LANDFALL OVER NE MEXICO THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SAME AREA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W. SEE ABOVE. A WEAK RIDGE
DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE
LIGHT IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.  ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE SE U.S..IN BETWEEN...THERE
IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS
THROUGH LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL GULF. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER IS
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.
TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT WITH SOME 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW IS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT WWD REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW EVENING.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES
THE WESTERN GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING AREAS
OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
CONVECTION HAS ALSO FLARED UP OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE SE U.S. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
NE OUT OF THE REGION. A TUTT LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 27N62W
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER HIGH SURROUNDING BY DRY AIR/STABLE AIR
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N50W. THIS UPPER HIGH IS
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE RIDDING EXTENDING E FROM WEST
AFRICA. A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE REGION
SUPPORTING A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
31N51W THEN CONTINUES ALONG 28N44W 30N53W TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW
NEAR 28N61N. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MAINLY NEAR THE SFC LOW. A 1022 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR
26N51W. A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FORECAST
AREA PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

$$
GR










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