[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 16W MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE JUST N OF THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 9N30W TO 12N38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW
LEVEL SWIRL REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 12N57W AT
27/0400 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW LEVEL SWIRL.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW/MID
LEVEL LOW ROTATION IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N75W WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE E OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N68W BUT THERE NO
INDICATION OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS COMBINATION IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
66W-77W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE UPPER
AIR DATA AND A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION NOW INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE IS ACTUALLY
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CLOSER TO 89W. THIS WAVE
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W TO OVER THE
YUCATAN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 10N30W 8N36W 10N53W 11N61W.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS 75 NM OF LINE FROM 7N23W 5N30W 6N38W AND FROM
7N-14N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT IN THE GULF IS A WEAK 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 22N97W  WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NE TO NEAR 28N92W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
UNLIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
AND EXTREME S TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. A BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE SW GULF S
OF 28N W OF 87W GENERATING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE SAME AREA
AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW. AN UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE
SE US AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER E TEXAS. A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ACROSS N GEORGIA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER HIGH
IS OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE SE US WITH A CLUSTER MOVING OFF THE
LOUISIANA/E TEXAS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 92W-95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N80W WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 13N82W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 78W-84W AND
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 20N FROM 84W-87W. A BROAD UPPER
HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W AND COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE IS A
LOW/MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 13N75W. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 31N80W AND
OVERING THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 75W PUSHING ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE W COAST
OF FLORIDA. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
UPPER LOW NEAR 27N58W AND THE 1014 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N59W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 23N64W THEN NE TO
29N70W. A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE REGION
EXTENDING A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N36W ALONG 28N43W TO THE 1014 MB SURFACE LOW ABOVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
SURFACE LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N46W WITH DRY STABLE
AIR COVERING THE AREA E OF 55W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

$$
WALLACE







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