[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251809
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TURNING IN THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 20W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH LOW LEVEL
TURNING CLEARLY APPARENT ON VIS IMAGES...THOUGH STILL WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ARE CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 44W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W S OF 18N MOVING W
15 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF CURVATURE IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 81W-83W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

THE NRN PORTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W S OF 24N MOVING W 15 KT.  A 1009
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N95W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
91W-96W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N30W 10N50W 10N60W. BESIDES
FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 8W-14W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
30W-44W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ALABAMA NEAR 33N86W PRODUCING
5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WIDELY  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 83W-87W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 26N79W 23N82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 79W-82W.  FURTHER W...A TROPICAL
WAVE AND EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SEE
ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N89W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS MOST OF THE GULF.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.  FURTHER
E...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 67W-70W.  FURTHER N...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
67W-74W.  TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE SEA.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
IS OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N88W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM
32N79W 29N82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 78W-82W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 28N44W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
28N52W.  A COLD FRONT CONTINUES W ALONG 24N58W 26N64W 30N67W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N27W 25N35W TO
A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 23N45W...AND CONTINUES W TO 22N51W.  FAIR
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
70W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N57W.  A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 20N43W.

$$
FORMOSA



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