[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 16 KT MOVING W AT 10 KT.  AN
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF
30W BETWEEN 8N-23N MOVING W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 18W-25W.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 14N MOVING W AT
10 KT.  LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 45W-52W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER CUBA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 75W-82W.  FURTHER S...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
76W-85W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA ALONG 88W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 82W-86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-22N
BETWEEN 87W-92W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND
HONDURAS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N30W 10N48W 9N52W 12N58W
10N63W.  BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 57W-62W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N91W PRODUCING
5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SEE ABOVE.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
24N26W 20N94W 18N92W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 26N88W.  UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.  A
1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA NEAR
9N71W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM
5N-11N BETWEEN 68W-75W.  FURTHER N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 65W-75W.
TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE SEA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MANY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES ARE AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC. THE FIRST
OF THESE FEATURES IS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA
ALONG 31N78W 26N81W.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS
ALONG 28N73W 21N76W THAT HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
MOVING THROUGH THE SRN BAHAMAS.  A 1018 MB HIGH IS NEAR 27N68W
WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 23N48W. THE HIGHS HAVE MOVED S OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA
FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 32N45W...CONTINUES SW TO ANOTHER 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 29N52W...THEN W TO 26N57W 30N65W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ALONG 50W N OF
27N. TYPICAL UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC OUT TO NEAR
50W. SFC RIDGING ALSO DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC...S OF A 1032 MB
HIGH OFF OF WRN EUROPE. THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS N OF 15N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA




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