[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 14N MOVING 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE.SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 70W-72W.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE W ALONG 84W/85W S OF
24N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOW
READILY OBSERVED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 8N31W 8N52W 10N62W. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 31W-52W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
SW LOUISIANA IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W OVER
THE E GULF TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA. DRY
SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
S OF 20N 93W-97W AND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN
W OF 70W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE
UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 78W TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN.
THIS IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 13N FROM 72W-80W. CONFLUENCE OF LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO OVER PANAMA E OF 81W
TO OVER COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO THE MONA PASSAGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER JAMAICA OVER
THE W ATLC S OF 27N FROM 70W-80W. A WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE LOW
REMAINS CENTERED JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 28N79W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A
60 NM RADIUS OF 29N79W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND S
FLORIDA S OF 27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIPS
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N FROM 48W-70W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM A 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 32N48W SW ALONG 29N57W THEN NW TO 30N61W BECOMING
STATIONARY CONTINUING ACROSS BERMUDA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
FRONT E OF 52W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
BENIGN UPPER LOW/HIGH ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
WHILE A TYPICAL UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS E FROM AFRICA S OF 24N E
OF 30W. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE N OF 32N COVERING THE NE ATLC E
OF 40W. DRY STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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