[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 13N MOVING 15-20 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE HAS
A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE ESPECIALLY N OF 16N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE FROM 21N61W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE ABC
ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N67W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 29N76W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO JUST OFF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W MOVING W 15-20 KT. VERY
BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V
CURVATURE AND A SMALL LOW LEVEL ROTATION NEAR THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
IN THE W ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 19N76W TO 15N82W INCLUDING
JAMAICA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N27W 10N50W 9N61W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF THE AXIS W OF 48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 29W-37W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS S MEXICO INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW IN THE N CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E GULF WITHIN 75
NM OF LINE FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA ALONG 25N86W THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED BETWEEN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 20N82W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH NE
INTO THE W ATLC WITH A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN
83W-87W AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS JUST S OF HAITI GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN EASTERLY UPPER FLOW CLEARING THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO 29N76W COVERING THE W ATLC
AND GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
76W-80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH JUST S OF HAITI NE TO 26N69W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 67W-70W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW/HIGH/LOW ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A TYPICAL UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS E FROM AFRICA
OUT TO 30W. LARGE BUT SOMEWHAT WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE ATLC TO ACROSS THE SE US AND N GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N55W. ALL OF THIS IS
PRODUCING ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES.

$$
WALLACE



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