[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 220234
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

DEAN APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A LARGE RAGGED EYE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED DEAN AND MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 979 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THE SFMR HAS ONLY MEASURED 59 KNOTS SO FAR.  SINCE DEEP
CONVECTION IS RETURNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70
KNOTS...WHICH IS A BLEND OF BOTH MEASUREMENTS AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS.
DEAN IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL BUT IS RUNNING OUT
OF TIME TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE.

THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT CAYO ARCAS RECENTLY
MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 KNOTS...GUSTS TO 63 KNOTS AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986.3 MB. NOAA BUOY 42055 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KNOTS AND A GUST TO
43 KNOTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/0300Z 19.9N  93.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 20.7N  95.6W    85 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.4N  99.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net