[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 211444
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA...DEAN CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE THE SPARSELY-POPULATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. THE
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT BASED ON THE DECAY COMPONENT OF THE
SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS AS A HURRICANE...AND WILL HAVE ABOUT 18 HOURS
OVER WATER TO REGAIN STRENGTH. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT DEAN COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
THE AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING WILL BE HARD TO GAUGE UNTIL WE SEE
HOW MUCH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE
OVER LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECASTING THINKING. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/1500Z 19.0N  89.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 19.4N  92.2W    85 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N  95.5W    95 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 20.5N  98.7W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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