[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN AT 21/1200 UTC IS
NEAR 18.9N 88.7W...OR ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM...NORTHWEST
OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. HURRICANE DEAN IS MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF DEAN MADE
LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR COSTA
MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 21/0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF
29N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 24.5N. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N TO 27N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO
28N BETWEEN 50W AND 71W...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND
63W...AND FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W INCLUDING ON TOP
OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN PHASE WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ELONGATED PUERTO RICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE ON TOP OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM BARBADOS TO BARBUDA.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 11N30W 9N49W 15N60W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8.5N
BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W...
AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO
12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W IN BROAD LOW PRESSURE...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 56W. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W ALSO
IS EAST OF THE 65W/66W TROPICAL WAVE...AND PART OF
THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE EYE OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 21/0830 UTC. THIS
LOCATION ALSO IS ABOUT 40 MILES/65 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO
20N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A RAINBAND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
16N84W 19N85W 21N86W 21N88W 21N90W...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W GOING FROM THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA WESTWARD...AND IN A FARTHER-AWAY BAND
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N76W 16N80W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW EASILY REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE LAST
FEW DAYS NOW IS INLAND IN THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS NEAR 27N98W.
THE ORIENTATION OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CYCLONIC CENTER
IS NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST...FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE
TEXAS COAST TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N101W. THE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AND FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND EVENTUALLY IN WHICHEVER PART OF
MEXICO THAT IS AFFECTED AS HURRICANE DEAN CONTINUES ITS COURSE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE EYE OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 21/0830 UTC.
THIS LOCATION ALSO IS ABOUT 40 MILES/65 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
17N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A RAINBAND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
16N84W 19N85W 21N86W 21N88W 21N90W...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W GOING FROM THE COAST
OF NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA WESTWARD...AND IN A FARTHER-AWAY BAND
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N76W 16N80W. AN ELONGATED
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW IS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 70W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 12N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM HURRICANE DEAN PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W
SOUTH OF 29N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
PHASE WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ELONGATED DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREAS FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 71W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N75W
STILL IS GUIDING THE DIRECTION OF HURRICANE DEAN. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CENTER IS CUTTING INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO
28N BETWEEN 50W AND 71W ARE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND
THE 65W/66W TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N33W TO 27N35W
AND 21N38W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN
500 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
33N50W TO BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST.

$$
MT


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